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Title : Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis
Date : Oct 22, 2007
Speaker : Gregory S. Parnell, Professor of Systems Engineering
Affiliation : United States Military Academy at West Point
Abstract
Risk analysis includes risk perception, risk assessment, and risk management. Risk analysis techniques have been developed and applied to natural and engineering hazards for several decades. The tragic events of 911 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction, have led an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Unlike natural and engineering hazards, terrorists are intelligent adversaries who adapt their plans and actions to achieve their strategic objectives. This presentation compares risk analysis for hazards with risk analysis for intelligent adversaries, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, presents an approach used for information security risk analysis, and recommends the development of new risk analysis techniques for intelligent adversary risk analysis.
Biosketch
Dr. Gregory S. Parnell is a Professor of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Point . He teaches decision analysis, systems engineering and operations research. His research involves decision and risk analysis, resource allocation decision-making, strategic planning, and system engineering. He is a member of several panels of the National Security Agency Advisory Board. He is the Chair of the National Research Council Study on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis. He is a Senior Principal of Innovative Decisions Inc., a leading decision analysis consulting firm.
