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J. Eric Bickel

Assistant Professor
Director, Decision Analysis Systems Lab

Ph.D., Decision Analysis from the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford University

Contact Information

Office: 236B Zachry
Phone: 979-845-4347
Fax: 979-847-9005
Email:

Curriculum Vitae

Research Interests

Dr. Bickel is the Director of the Decision Analysis Systems Lab within the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering. His research interests include the theory and practice of decision making under uncertainty (decision analysis), modeling probabilistic dependence, value of information and experiments, personal and organizational risk preference, applications of copulas to decision analysis, calibration of probability assessments, applications of maximum entropy methods to improve decision making, and strictly proper scoring rules.

Current Research

Dr. Bickel's current research focuses on the application of decision analytic techniques to complex exploration and development decisions in the oil and gas industry. This includes optimally sequencing exploration opportunities and quantifying the value of seismic information. Dr. Bickel is also researching pricing decisions in energy markets.

Comparisons Among Scoring Rules
This research into the properties of strictly proper scoring rules focuses on ex ante and ex post properties of quadratic, spherical, and logarithmic scoring rules. In an ex post sense we compare their rank-order properties. From an ex ante perspective, we study the effect of a non-linear utility function on the optimal response to a probabilistic query.

Optimal Sequential Exploration
Optimal sequential exploration concentrates on how to optimally sequence a series of oil and gas exploration wells, or how to best invest in a series of research and development (R&D) projects. This research employs maximum entropy methods to simplify the assessment of probabilistic dependence between assets (e.g., wells or R&D projects) and dynamic programming to efficiently determine the optimal sequence.

Value of Seismic Information
Seismic information research, which is funded by Schlumberger, is focused on quantifying the value of seismic information or experiments in the context of oil and gas development decisions. Dr. Bickel is the principal investigator. Professors from Petroleum Engineering and Geosciences are also participating in this effort. This research was awarded the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society 2006 Practice Award.

Other Research
In addition to the projects described above, Dr. Bickel is researching the application of copulas to simplify the modeling of probabilistic dependence in gas and power markets (funded by Suez Energy North America) and the calibration of probabilistic forecasts in weather and online markets.

Funding

"Optimizing Development Strategies to Increase Reserves in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs," $315,000 (plus $80,000 in industry cost sharing from Unconventional Gas Resources Canada Operating Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co), 2 years, Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (DOE), Bickel, J. E. (co-PI), D. McVay (co-PI).

"Quantifying the Value of Seismic Information: Phase 2," Funded by Schlumberger, $125,000 (1 year), Principal Investigator.

"Quantifying the Value of Seismic Information: Phase 1," Funded by Schlumberger, $50,000 (6 months), Principal Investigator.

"Copulas and Energy Commodity Pricing," Funded by Suez Energy North America, $15,000, Principal Investigator.

Previous Experience

Prior to joining Texas A&M, Dr. Bickel was a Senior Engagement Manager for Strategic Decisions Group, where he applied decision analysis to corporate strategy. He has consulted around the world in a range of industries, including oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, financial services, electricity generation and delivery, metals/mining, and chemicals. In addition, Dr. Bickel has worked for Sandia National Laboratories and Pacific Northwest Laboratories.

Education

Dr. Bickel holds a B.S. in mechanical engineering with a minor in economics from New Mexico State University and a M.S. and Ph.D. in decision analysis from the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems (now the Department of Management Science and Engineering) at Stanford University. Dr. Bickel's PhD advisor was Ronald A. Howard.

Publications

Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. Forthcoming. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value." PE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2007. "Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering, 3(4) 233-251. A zipped version of the spreadsheet associated with this paper may be downloaded here; note this spreadsheet contains macros.
Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Some Comparisons between Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis 4(2), 49-65. The online supplement is available here.
Bickel, J. Eric. 2006. "Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion," Decision Analysis 3(4), 233-251.
Pickering, Steve and J. Eric Bickel. 2006. "The Value of Seismic Information," Oil and Gas Financial Journal 3(5), 25-33.
Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis 3(1), 16-32.
The spreadsheet associated with this paper may be downloaded here; note this spreadsheet contains macros.
Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples," INFORMS Transactions on Education 5(1), http://ite.pubs.informs.org/Vol5No1/Bickel/ .
Bickel, J. Eric. 2003. "New Insights into an Old Statistic: Why it is so Hard to Hit .400," The Baseball Research Journal 32, 15-21. Errata for the version published by SABR. The online version has corrected these typesetting errors.
Bickel, J. Eric and Dean Stotz. 2002. "Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type: Fact and Fallacy," The Baseball Research Journal 31, 29-34.

Manuscripts Under Review

Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "The Relationship between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem." Under review at Decision Analysis.
Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. "Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry - From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion." Under review at SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future." Under review at SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering.
Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2008. "From Uncertainty Quantification to Decision Making in the Oil and Gas Industry." Under review at the Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering.
Bickel, J. Eric and Seong Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," Under review at Monthly Weather Review.

Conference Proceedings

Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2008. "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Tropical Cyclone Risk," 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, 28 April -02 May.
Bickel, J. Eric and Seong Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," presented at the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 88th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 23 January.
Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. "Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry - From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion," paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.
Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future," paper SPE 110378 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.
Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel, "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Hurricane Risk," Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Society of Engineering Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 21-24 Oct 2007.
Gibson, Rick, J. Eric Bickel, Duane McVay, and Steve Pickering. 2007. "Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Seismic Information Value," SEG Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Texas, 23-28 September.
Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2006. "Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," paper SPE 102369 presented at the 2006 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September. Under review at SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering. A zipped version of the spreadsheet associated with this paper may be downloaded here; note this spreadsheet contains macros.
Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," paper SPE 102340 presented at the 2006 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September. An addendum describing the economic model can be found here.
Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," 2006 EAGE Annual Conference, Vienna, Austria, 13 June.

Work In Progress

Bickel, J. Eric. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules and the Measurement of Uncertainty."
Bickel, J. Eric. "Experiential Learning and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules."
Bickel, J. Eric, Woo Seop Yun, and Seong-Dae Kim. "Calibration: An Investigation of Major League Baseball Betting Markets."
Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. "Calibration of Weather.com Precipitation Forecasts."
Seong-Dae Kim and J. Eric Bickel. "Roads or Rader: Investing in Improved Forecasting or Transportation Infrastructure in the Face of Hurricane Risk."

Awards
INFORMS Decision Analysis Society 2006 Practice Award